SpaceX gears up for a $1. 78tn IPO while analysts warn the price may be in thin air

SpaceX is preparing what would be the largest stock market listing ever, floating at a headline valuation of $1. 78 trillion and offering at least $75 billion of shares. The demand has been intense, with bids reportedly running three to four times the offering and more than $250 billion placed by investors eager to get on board.

If it goes through as planned, this offering would dwarf the previous record, Saudi Aramco’s $29. 4 billion float in 2019, and could push Elon Musk into history as the world’s first trillionaire. That is the high drama version.

The more cautious version comes from investment researchers at Morningstar, who valued SpaceX at about $63 a share, well below the expected IPO price of $135. Morningstar warns of a serious gap between market expectations and fundamentals, and its chief equity strategist has suggested investors might be better off waiting for a cheaper entry point.

SpaceX is three businesses wrapped into one ticker: rockets and spacecraft including Falcon and Starship, Starlink satellite internet, and an artificial intelligence arm known as xAI. The company reported a $4. 9 billion net loss in 2025, and the IPO price would value the firm at roughly 92 times trailing sales, a multiple that assumes massive future growth.

Ambitious targets fuel the optimism. SpaceX projects enormous addressable markets for Starlink, and has floated ideas like orbital data centers and off-world colonies. Morningstar, however, estimates Starlink’s realistic global opportunity at about $129 billion, far short of SpaceX’s own $1. 6 trillion ceiling for that segment.

The listing has also caught the attention of regulators and lawmakers. Senator Elizabeth Warren urged the Securities and Exchange Commission to delay the IPO over concerns about valuation and governance. Meanwhile index providers are moving in different directions: MSCI appears open to early inclusion, Nasdaq has eased rules to allow faster entry for big new listings, but S&P Dow Jones is keeping its stricter requirements, which could delay SpaceX’s appearance in the S&P 500.

So here we are: record demand on one side, skeptical analysts and regulatory caution on the other. For investors, the choice is between catching what could be a historic lift-off or waiting for a steadier orbit. Either way, anyone leaning into this launch should check their parachute and their spreadsheets.